The bread (or cracker etc.) trick is more accurate, but with practice you can get a pretty good idea by flicking in a few drops of water and seeing how it reacts.
Nutcakes has it right. If you don't have a thermometer the bread method is really the best way. That trick is old and steeped in the history of culinary.
when you think it is close, drop a cube of bread in. If it sizzles and browns in about that a minute you are good. If it burns in that time, it's too hot. But depending on what you are putting in, the food will cool the oil a bit at first.
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